Handicapping Baseball Totals
Posted By admin On 24/03/22- Maddux sports specializes in providing football picks and sports handicapping including NBA picks, and free basketball picks for pro & college football pick predictions.Five important skills that.
- Total betting is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker’s posted total. Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to.
The table below shows the most common final combined scores for nearly 32,000 MLB games. This information is useful for those making wagers on the diamond. It allows them to see how often each number hits.
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MLB Key Numbers For Handicapping & Making Bets on Baseball Totals
“Runs” represents the final score of each game. The “#” representing how many times that has been the final score. And, “%”shows the percentage of the games that have hit that mark.
It’s not surprising that 7, 9 and 5 are the most popular numbers. Evens get knocked down a bit because games can’t end in a tie. And, when you think about it, 7-0, 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3 are pretty common. Maybe the most surprising is 11 runs at almost 8% of all games, which seems like a high final score.
While looking through this past data, I came across the highest scoring game in recent history.
Baseball Handicapping Sites
On August 12, 2008 the Boston Red Sox defeated the Texas Rangers 19-17 for a combined score of 36 runs. The game featured a ridiculous 37 total hits, 5 home runs, 4 errors, 11 different pitchers and six players with at least 3 RBI.
| Runs Scored | # Games | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3561 | 11.15% |
| 9 | 3301 | 10.33% |
| 5 | 3052 | 9.55% |
| 8 | 2492 | 7.80% |
| 11 | 2452 | 7.67% |
| 6 | 2283 | 7.15% |
| 10 | 2113 | 6.61% |
| 3 | 1969 | 6.16% |
| 13 | 1665 | 5.21% |
| 12 | 1567 | 4.90% |
| 4 | 1518 | 4.75% |
| 14 | 1093 | 3.42% |
| 15 | 1070 | 3.35% |
| 16 | 650 | 2.03% |
| 17 | 631 | 1.97% |
| 1 | 600 | 1.88% |
| 2 | 594 | 1.86% |
| 18 | 384 | 1.20% |
| 19 | 313 | 0.98% |
| 20 | 207 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 166 | 0.52% |
| 22 | 89 | 0.28% |
| 24 | 47 | 0.15% |
| 25 | 44 | 0.14% |
| 23 | 25 | 0.08% |
| 26 | 21 | 0.07% |
| 27 | 16 | 0.05% |
| 28 | 9 | 0.03% |
| 31 | 6 | 0.02% |
| 29 | 5 | 0.02% |
| 30 | 2 | 0.01% |
| 32 | 2 | 0.01% |
| 33 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 34 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 35 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 36 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 31,951 Total Games | ||
When studying the daily baseball lines you’ll see the over under commonly set at 7 or 9. Now you know why. What the books will do is skew the juice one way or the other. If you like the “over” 7 runs you might have to pay higher juice if the books are also leaning that way. That’s why when you check out our free picks you’ll also see the line listed next to any over/unders.
By setting the over/under line on a common score the books are risking more pushes. Those aren’t necessarily good for them since they can’t make any money off of the vig. Some books will take a riskier approach and go with a half point higher or lower with more vig. Since you can’t have a tie when it’s on a half run this causes more swings in the action. Provided the book can balance the wagers in accordance with the juice they set on each way.
Learn More
A Look At Other Sports
How to Handicap Baseball Games
by Predictem.com Staff
Baseball Handicapping Formulas
Handicapping baseball is a bit different than handicapping other sports. The reason for this is that stats are more are involved in helping decide if a play has value or not (compared to other sports where you may handicap more on emotion/motivation etc.)
While one could make a case for any one of a zillion stats to be factored into capping MLB games, there are some more important than others. These include but are not limited to:
WHIP
ERA
Hitter vs. Pitcher Stats
Pitcher vs. Team
Grass vs. Turf
Night vs. Day
Outdoors vs. Indoors
Team Batting Average over last 5 games
Hot or Cold Team
Bullpens
Home vs. Road
Errors
Weather
We also like the fact that baseball offers a unique opportunity; The ability to hit less than 50% of your games and still turn a profit. We’ll get into that later in this article.
We’ll kick off our baseball capping tutorial with W.H.I.P. (For more info see: WHIP) Fantasy baseball players rejoice! All those years of being a stat rat will pay off handsomely as WHIP is a huge handicapping tool. For those of you not familiar with the term, it stands for walks + hits divided by innings pitched. By doing this, you will come out with a number that usually ranges in between 1.00 and 2.00.
With that being said, what is a good whip and what is a bad whip? The lower the better. Every blue moon or so you may see a pitcher (usually a closer) with a whip of less than 1.00. On the flip side, you won’t see too many whip’s close to 2.00 or above because these players don’t last long in the big leagues.
A whip of 1.00 to 1.20 is very good. This would indicate the pitcher gives up around 1 hit/walk combined per inning pitched. These pitchers are likely to have a fair amount of wins, holds or saves as putting a lesser amount of men on base usually means lower ERA as well.
A whip of 1.25 to 1.35 is a bit more common and would denote a decent to middle of the road pitcher. These guys aren’t bad, but their not the top of the line either.
A whip of 1.40 and above tells us we’re looking at a pitcher that is either a gas can in that he lacks movement on his ball and is getting hit hard or lacks control and puts a bunch of guys on base via the walk. They can be great “go againsts” assuming the opposing pitcher is decent and your not paying too high of a price to bet against the high whip pitcher. It should also be noted that a game offering a match-up between 2 high whip pitchers can be a great shot at hitting an easy OVER bet.